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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still