Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
