Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
